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On the same day in early January when thousands of economists converged on Washington, D. C., for the Allied Social Science Associations' conference, The Wall Street Journal published its economic forecast for 2003. The forecast is based on a semi-annual survey of 64 economists from banks, corporations, consulting firms, and academia. Often quoted in the media, this group puts a public face on the profession. In a sense, they teach the public about the economy.
Among the more than two thousand presentations at the ASSA meetings were scores of papers that would appear to be of particular interest to economic forecasters. For example, the American Economic Association sponsored 140 sessions, including titles such as "The National Academy of Science's Panel Report on the CPI" and "The Conduct of Monetary Policy." The Econometric Society, publishers of Econometrica, sponsored 56 sessions, including "Forecasting and Forecast Evaluation" and "Real Time Forecasting." Other relevant ASSA groups included the National Association of Business Economists, the American Finance Association, and the International Society for Inventory Research. Given this meaty menu, I wondered how many of those economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal would be in attendance. Were these sessions considered relevant enough to attract the nation's most visible economic forecasters?
Apparently not. Only one of the 64 economists in the WSJ survey was listed in the ASSA program as a formal participant—that is, as a presenter, discussant, or session chairperson (Allen Sinai of Decision Economics, Inc. was a discussant on a national policy panel). Perhaps formal participation is too restrictive a standard. After all, some WSJ forecasters may have come simply to attend sessions or to recruit new economists. Conference organizers published a directory listing about 6,500 meeting registrants who were staying at one of the eleven ASSA hotels. A search of that directory did not uncover any additional WSJ survey economists.
I cannot say whether other WSJ survey economists attended the meetings, but I can say that no one else was listed in the program or was preregistered and staying at one of ASSA hotels. All seven academic economists in the WSJ survey were among the missing. The bottom line is that nearly all the economists in the WSJ survey apparently found the flagship economic conference not worth their time.
Maybe these forecasters travel in different circles, breath different air, and were therefore largely oblivious that the ASSA meetings were even being held. As a reference point, I wondered how many of them belong to the American Economic Association, the lead sponsor of the ASSA meetings. A January search of the AEA's online directory (AEA members can go to http://www.vanderbilt.edu/AEA/ and click on the directory) found that 22 of the 64 WSJ forecasters are AEA members, including Dr. Sinai and five of the seven academics.
So among the 22 AEA members, only one attended the profession's annual exchange of ideas. How representative is this attendance rate among AEA members? There are about 18,600 AEA members, and about 2,400 of the ASSA registrants were also AEA members. This implies that about one in eight AEA members attended the meetings. So among the 22 AEA members from the WSJ forecaster group, about three would be expected to attend on average. Again, only one actually attended. On the other hand, about 4,100 people listed in the hotel directory were not AEA members but attended the meetings. Among the 42 WSJ forecasters who were not AEA members, none apparently attended the meetings. However you slice it, the WSJ forecasters were underrepresented at the meetings.
By the way, based
on the WSJ survey, the average annualized forecast of quarterly real
GDP growth in 2003 was 2.7%, 3.2%, 3.7%, and 3.7% for each quarter, respectively.
The CPI was projected to rise 2.2%, and the unemployment rate was projected
at 6.0% in May and 5.7% in November. Questions: Does knowing that so few surveyed
economists attended the profession's meetings make you more confident or less
confident in their forecasts, or do you think their attendance is irrelevant?
What does your answer say about your view of the WSJ forecasters, your
view of macro forecasting in general, and your view of the ASSA meetings?
Myles Boylan, Program Director of the National Science Foundation's Division of Undergraduate Education, spoke at the ASSA meetings on "NSF Programs to Support Undergraduate Education in Economics." He said the NSF is funding the development of novel course materials and technological innovations to improve active learning, especially software based improvements such as experimental economics. Grants are also available for the adaptation of high-quality materials and effective practices developed elsewhere. Just-in-time teaching (discussed next) is an example. Dr. Boylan said that the NSF receives few grant applications about teaching from economics (last year only two were submitted), and he would like more. There is also funding available for professional development workshops, where three or four grants a year of up to $1 million are awarded. NSF has yet to make such an award in economics. He mused that those who complete funded projects often follow in the footsteps of Miss America. They go around the country, say what they have been doing, then others say, "Gee, I would like to be like you." For further information, go to http://www.ehr.nsf.gov/due/awards/.
Scott Simkins of North Carolina A&T State University and Mark Maier of Glendale Community College in California are adapting "Just-in-Time" Teaching (JiTT) techniques for the economic principles course. This approach was originally developed in 1996 for introductory physics. Similar adaptations are underway in chemistry, biology, and mathematics. JiTT combines classroom activities that promote active learning with Web-based activities that enhance the classroom component. Here's the idea: between classes, students complete exercises and submit them to the instructor electronically via email or using course management software, such as WebCT and Blackboard. These assignments are due a few hours before class and are based on material to be covered in that class, so students must complete the day's reading to answer the questions.
The instructor reviews student submissions an hour or two before class and uses this material to focus the upcoming class session. Student submissions are excerpted and referenced during class to serve as a basis for discussion, replacing some or all of the traditional lecture. Student performance on the pre-class assignment is also used to develop follow-up exercises that groups of students work on together during class. These activities are designed to promote a virtuous cycle to encourage better class participation, offer timely feedback to students, and allow for "just-in-time" adjustments of class activities. Since students see their own work presented in class, they develop a stronger sense of responsibility for their own learning and are more likely to complete assignments. At least, that's the theory behind just-in-time teaching.
The National Science
Foundation awarded Professors Simkins and Maier $130,000 to develop a set of
JiTT tools for others to use in economics classes. They presented their approach
at the ASSA meetings in January. To keep apprised of their progress, send either
of them an email (simkinss@ncat.edu or
mmaier@glendale.edu) and ask to be
put on their JiTT-ECON mailing list.
Other Active Learning Projects
Here are some other active learning projects funded by the National Science Foundation that were presented at an ASSA "poster" session in January.
With a $75,000 NSF grant, Sheryl Ball, Kevin Oliver, and Catherine Eckel, all of Virginia Tech, are developing "Classroom Experiments for Large Lecture Courses." Their Wireless Interactive Teaching System (WITS) allows students to participate in economic experiments by communicating with an instructor's laptop via personal digital assistants (PDAs), such as Palm Pilots, which are smaller and less expensive than PCs or laptops. This technology allows for running experiments in real time in large classes. They are also testing the effectiveness of this approach. Professor Ball's address is sball@vt.edu.
Todd Porter and his colleagues at Youngstown State in Ohio received $75,000 from the NSF for "Teaching Microeconomic Principles Through a Simulated Economy on the Internet." The project simulates an economy of growing complexity, allowing students to explore economic concepts in a dynamic setting. This work was inspired by Ecosim, developed by Antony Davies of Duquesne University in Pittsburgh. The investigators will assess the effectiveness of their approach over the next two years. Principles students in the current academic year are serving as the control group. Students next year will be the treatment group. To find out more, go to http://www.as.ysu.edu/~tsporter/simhome.htm.
Anne Bresnock of
Cal. Poly Pomona and Neil Garston of Cal. State-Los Angeles got a $496,000 NSF
grant for "SimEcon: Economic Issues and Principles." They are creating
a set of topic-specific modules so introductory students can apply basic concepts.
The modules employ simulated relationships between key variables, allowing students
to explore "what if" questions. For example, as the operator of a
competitive firm, the student selects the quantity that maximizes short-run
profit after the price and costs are changed. If you are interested in reviewing
any of the 15 existing modules, contact Professor Bresnock (aebresnock@csupomona.edu).
Active learning
is timely and promising, but most instructors still lecture most of the time.
Here are some tips that may help your students learn: (1) Provide an outline
or a handout that offers students the structure of the day's class. Students
seem to do better when they know where things are going. (2) Write important
material on the blackboard, overheads, or whatever your medium. Say it, then
repeat it as you write it, then say it again (repetition is the mother of mastery).
(3) Show students how you construct each graph, including labeling the axes.
If students are presented with a finished graph, they never learn how to build
it and can't do so on exams. (4) Adopt a well-spaced presentation, one that
allows students to absorb and process information. (5) If you supply handouts,
provide enough room on them for students to take notes. (6) Give students two
or three short breaks during the class period, providing them a minute or two
to briefly summarize the main ideas from the previous 15 minutes. (7) Try to
avoid information overload with transparencies, slides, and other media. Such
buildup seems to occur toward the end of the term, as instructors try to get
back on schedule. And (8), tell students what your tests are like and what level
of expertise you expect from them. The course should not be like some giant
scavenger hunt. These suggestions probably seem obvious, but success is a study
of the obvious.
Joseph Schumpeter claimed in his History of Economic Analysis, (Oxford, 1954) that Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations was "the most successful, not only of all books on economics, but, with the possible exception of Darwin's Origin of Species, of all scientific books that have appeared to this day"(p. 181).
Both Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace, the two independent discoverers of evolution by natural selection, said they developed the idea while reading Malthus on population. Malthusian theory has not been a useful predictor of the human experience since the Industrial Revolution, but it continues to predict the experience of non-human species quite well.
Text literally means that which is woven, or a weaving of words. Text has the same root as the word textile, a weaving of threads. The rules of punctuation can sometimes give the written word an informational advantage over the spoken word, as in distinguishing between a restrictive and a non-restrictive clause. But both sides of the written word must know the ground rules. As a textbook author, I worry about students who miss information because they never learned the rules of punctuation.
The expression "higher education" is a broad term, stretching from the most ivy-covered college to a two-year college with makeshift classrooms. The standard course load for instructors at Princeton and Harvard is now down to one course per term, while a five-course load is standard at many two-year colleges. I have met instructors at two-year colleges who were teaching seven and in one case, nine courses at a time, usually for the extra pay or to fill a last minute vacancy. The difference between the highest and lowest teaching loads across institutions has probably never been greater.
"Teaching
is not a lost art, but the regard for it is a lost tradition."
-Historian Jacques Barzun
"There are
two pains in life, the pain of discipline, and the pain of regret. Take your
pick."
-Unknown
"It is easy
to be generous out of another's purse."
-Danish proverb
"If you are
offered a penny for your thoughts, but you put your two cents' worth in, then
someone is making a penny."
-Comedian Steven Wright
In the last couple of years, Charlie Holt of the University of Virginia has written about 25 interactive Web-based programs that are available for use by teachers in their courses. The experiments include auctions, markets, individual decision problems, bargaining, voting, asymmetric-information games, and public goods games. To get an idea of what's available, you can review the Experiment Selection Menu at http://veconlab.econ.virginia.edu/admin.htm. To use the programs in your course, you need a "session name," which you can get from Professor Holt via email (holt@virginia.edu). Please provide your school name, the course you teach and three initials in the email message.
In the Fall 2002 issue (all back issues are available at http://www.swlearning.com/economics/mceachern/economist.html), I discussed my problem of falling 50 exams short while passing them out in a large section of principles. My solution was to offer students the option of either taking the exam as scheduled or taking a similar exam the next class. I asked you for other solutions. Richard Bryant of the University of Missouri-Rolla suggests using price points to allocate exam slots. You could begin by offering two points to students willing to delay the exam until the next class. If you get too many takers, you could lower the price. Since half my class, or more than 150 students, volunteered to take a later exam even without extra points, the market-clearing price of getting 50 students to postpone the exam would likely be negative points. I asked Professor Bryant what he thought of awarding negative points. We agreed that students would claim that subtracting points would be unfair, even as they willingly agreed to such a deal. He said that if he had thought of this solution on the spot, he probably would carry it through to its logical conclusion, even if this meant point cuts. "That's what makes our profession, at least in academia, so interesting."
John Solow of the University of Iowa has a solution to the out-of-exams problem that would work best when the exam is entirely multiple choice with bubble sheets. He suggests splitting the last 50 copies of my five-page exam into two parts (pages 1-3 and pages 4-5). Distribute these parts to each of the last 100 students, alternating first part and second part. Then have students trade once they are done with their half. He notes that students would have to be monitored more closely for cheating. This seems to be a practical solution on a final exam since there is no "next class" in which to offer another exam. But it would still be messy. If questions were distributed evenly across pages, those with pages 1-3 would get 60% of the questions and those with pages 4-5 would get 40%, so the latter would be done sooner on average and would have to wait for the others to finish. If time is tight, the students forced to wait would lose time. Splitting the exam into pages 1-2 and 3-5 would even this out a little since page 5 is likely to be a partial page. Still, the last 100 students would claim, with some justification, that they were at a disadvantage compared to students with a complete set of pages. But, again, if you have the nightmare scenario of running out of exams on the final, Professor Solow's solution could still save you much grief.
In the Fall 2002 issue I discussed my biggest teaching goof and asked for other contributions. Here are goofs by three other instructors. I will call them Ben, Tom, and Jerry.
Ben's slip was minor but annoying. He assigned a reading on the first day of class but soon realized that it was too difficult. So he withdrew the assignment the next day. He thought students would appreciate his sensitivity. But some students had already begun the assignment, and others, smelling blood, claimed to have begun it. They said he was being unfair, which made for a chilly start to the course.
Tom gave an essay exam but failed to inform students what each question was worth. When no other information is available, students assume questions are weighted equally. Because the exam was too long, many students didn't finish. They were shocked to learn that the final few questions, the ones they didn't get to, counted more than the ones they answered. The result was a minor revolt and bad feelings all around. Students can allocate their time efficiently only when they know how much each question is worth—only when they know about relative prices.
Jerry signed so many over-enrollment authorizations for his principles course that his first exam was chaos, with many more students than seats. Apparently, a number of students showed up for the first time only on exam day. Many students had to sit on aisle steps in the large lecture hall. Jerry was not there that day; he left proctoring to his teaching assistants. But he got an earful later. Students complained that other students had cheated, not a surprising possibility given the crowding, the instructor's absence, and the fact that there was only one version of the exam. Jerry's solution? Next class he announced that all exams would be thrown out and a new one given. Despite a student uproar, that's what he did.
There were 2,168 jobs advertised in Job Openings for Economists during 2002. Academic positions accounted for 1,487 listings, or 68.6% of the total, and nonacademic positions, 681 listings, or 31.4%. The 2002 total was 10.6% below the 2001 total, with academic listings falling 6.7% and other listings falling 18.6%. Among the 18 fields of specialization listed, the five most requested fields in 2002 (and share of all fields requested) were Mathematical and Quantitative Methods (12.5%), International (10.7%), Microeconomics (10.4%), Industrial Organization (9.7%), and Macroeconomics and Monetary (8.9%). The five least requested fields were General Economics and Teaching (2.1%), Law and Economics (1.7%), Economic Systems (0.6%), Economic History (0.6%) and Methodology and History of Economic Thought (0.3%). The top and bottom five fields were the same the year before, though there was a little shuffling within those ranks. Note that Mathematical and Quantitative Methods, the most popular request in both years, includes Game Theory and Bargaining Theory.
I recently spent several months in Asia and was struck with how sellers signal the freshness of foods. Nearly all poultry, seafood, and reptiles are sold live. Seafood restaurants typically have tanks that keep seafood alive until preparation. Some restaurants even unbundle the meal to ensure freshness and a wider selection. In the seafood district of Hong Kong, for example, customers buy seafood live from a choice of vendors then bring the purchase to any number of restaurants, where it is prepared, often at the table. The most popular way of serving fish in Asia is steamed, the most transparent form of cooking—a lack of freshness cannot be disguised by the steaming, whereas it can be by baking, frying, or grilling. Even more transparent than steaming is serving seafood raw, as with sushi. I'm told that one should avoid ordering teriyaki dishes, where the meat, chicken or seafood is marinated in a spicy soy sauce, since this allows the cook to mask questionable flavor or freshness. Meat sauces, such as Worcestershire, were developed to make old meat more palatable in the days before refrigeration.
Goods continue
to get cheaper relative to most services. For example, at Brookstone, by no
means a discounter, a Mega Sound Desktop CD System with digital clock, AM/FM
digital radio, dual high-powered two-way speakers, and infrared remote sells
for only $149. In my region, automobile mechanics charge at least $75 an hour.
So for the price of an attractive CD system I could hire a mechanic for maybe
two hours. The difference is that the CD system was made in China, while the
mechanic works in Connecticut. But information technology workers in Connecticut
are not as fortunate as auto mechanics. Major insurers in Hartford have eliminated
hundreds of IT positions and outsourced these service jobs to India. The real
wages of remaining IT workers have declined. Auto mechanics, but not IT workers,
are insulated from international competition, at least so far.
Return to Contents of Issue 24,Spring 2003
